Mushuc Runa 2-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.95
No
61%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.3pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 22%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +73% / +73%
3.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+150% / -85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% /
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Libertad
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 1.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
226 Passes 200
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 15
6 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-2 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
02.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
02.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
09.04.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-1
AWAY Libertad
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa nicked a narrow win over Libertad 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mushuc Runa as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 37% of the ball to Libertad's 63%, shots finished 9-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?

Mushuc Runa 2-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Cup on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 49%, draw 25%, Libertad 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mushuc Runa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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