St. Pölten 4-0 Sturm Graz II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
13%
4.62
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.74
Over 2.5
63%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
4%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-3.9pp
13%
Draw
18%
-5.0pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
33%
+3.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
67%
-3.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.8pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pölten EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -2%
2.28/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.08
+7% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
403 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 81%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pölten
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sturm Graz II
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 2-4 HT 1-3 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
01.11.2024 St. Pölten St. Pölten 0-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
01.12.2023 St. Pölten St. Pölten 3-1 HT 3-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
30.07.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 1-4 HT 0-1 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
26.02.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 0-2 HT 0-0 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
12.08.2022 St. Pölten St. Pölten 2-5 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pölten
4-0
AWAY Sturm Graz II
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Pölten vs Sturm Graz II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pölten swept aside Sturm Graz II 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had St. Pölten as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, St. Pölten had 61% of the ball to Sturm Graz II's 39%, shots finished 19-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pölten had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for St. Pölten and 1.83 for Sturm Graz II.

What was the final score of St. Pölten vs Sturm Graz II?

St. Pölten 4-0 Sturm Graz II in the Austria - 1st Division on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pölten vs Sturm Graz II?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pölten win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split St. Pölten 62%, draw 13%, Sturm Graz II 25%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pölten), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pölten) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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