Sao Paulo 0-1 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.4
No
56%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.67
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
19.45
X/1
20%
3.65
X/2
6%
16.5
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
3%
16.05
2/X
6%
23.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
67%
+0.4pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.5pp
14%
Away Win
12%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
38%
+6.9pp
56%
BTTS No
62%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.45/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.69
-18% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +39%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
20.9 Crosses 14.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-0D-3L
AWAY LDU Quito
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.46 xG 0.95
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
438 Passes 294
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2025 LDU Quito LDU Quito 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo LKU
01.09.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
25.08.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 2-1 HT 2-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo CON CSA
23.09.2020 LDU Quito LDU Quito 4-2 HT 3-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo LKU
12.03.2020 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 2-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
0-1
AWAY LDU Quito
2.59 xG 0.88
75% Ball Possession 25%
26 Total Shots 4
11 Shots on Target 1
16 Corners 0
533 Passes 129
87% Pass Accuracy 59%
33 Box Touches 5
52 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito edged past Sao Paulo 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sao Paulo at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 75% of the ball to LDU Quito's 25%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 2.59 to 0.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sao Paulo.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, LDU Quito led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.60 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs LDU Quito?

Sao Paulo 0-1 LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 67%, draw 19%, LDU Quito 14%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sao Paulo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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