Brentford 4-3 Ipswich Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
17%
4.0
X/2
9%
9.82
X/X
9%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.45
2/2
10%
7.26
2/X
8%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ipswich Town EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -25%
2.16/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/3.79
+8% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -57%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 73%
35.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.0 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ipswich Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.65 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
384 Passes 236
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
29 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.04.2019 Brentford Brentford 2-0 HT 2-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
18.09.2018 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Brentford Brentford İNCL
07.04.2018 Brentford Brentford 1-0 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
19.08.2017 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNCL
04.03.2017 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNCL
13.08.2016 Brentford Brentford 2-0 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
4-3
AWAY Ipswich Town
4.10 xG 1.30
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
468 Passes 210
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Ipswich Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford edged past Ipswich Town 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brentford as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Brentford had 65% of the ball to Ipswich Town's 35%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 4.10 to 1.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brentford's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brentford had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brentford and 0.67 for Ipswich Town.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Ipswich Town?

Brentford 4-3 Ipswich Town in the England - Premier League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Ipswich Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brentford win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Brentford 51%, draw 24%, Ipswich Town 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brentford), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brentford) ✓ Over 2.5
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