Napoli 1-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 26 Oct 2024

Napoli
1-0 HT 0-0
Lecce
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.34
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.97
Over
48%
1.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No Pick
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.58
2-3
43%
1.81
4-5
20%
3.36
6+
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.85
X/1
19%
3.34
X/2
7%
17.4
X/X
9%
6.36
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
15.0
2/X
8%
22.7
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli The Market 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce The Market 14%
-7% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.88/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.65
-9% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +12%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
485 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
21.0 Crosses 14.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lecce
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.25 xG 1.06
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
558 Passes 268
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.05.2024 Napoli Napoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
30.09.2023 Lecce Lecce 0-4 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
07.04.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
31.08.2022 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
09.02.2020 Napoli Napoli 2-3 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
22.09.2019 Lecce Lecce 1-4 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1-0
AWAY Lecce
2.69 xG 0.68
65% Ball Possession 35%
24 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
16 Corners 5
425 Passes 198
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Napoli vs Lecce
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Napoli came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Lecce 1-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: no to both teams scoring (56%) landed.

On the day, Napoli had 65% of the ball to Lecce's 35%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 2.69 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Napoli's control.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Lecce.

Napoli vs Lecce Result & Final Score

Napoli 1-0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Napoli vs Lecce Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Napoli 53%, draw 25%, Lecce 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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