Arezzo 2-1 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 26 Oct 2024

Arezzo
2-1 HT 0-1
SPAL
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.1
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -14%
1.34/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.81
+3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
222 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
1W-2D-0L
AWAY SPAL
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 SPAL SPAL 0-0 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
23.10.2023 Arezzo Arezzo 3-1 HT 2-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
13.12.2015 Arezzo Arezzo 3-3 HT 1-1 SPAL SPAL İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
2-1
AWAY SPAL
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo edged past SPAL 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arezzo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arezzo had 47% of the ball to SPAL's 53%, shots finished 16-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arezzo had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arezzo and 1.33 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs SPAL?

Arezzo 2-1 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 46%, draw 30%, SPAL 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arezzo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arezzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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