Pergolettese 1-0 Triestina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 29.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+1.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Triestina EU Bookmakers 46%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.23/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.02
+11% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pergolettese
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Triestina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2024 Triestina Triestina 1-1 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
19.09.2023 Pergolettese Pergolettese 2-1 HT 1-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
22.04.2023 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-2 HT 0-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
17.12.2022 Triestina Triestina 1-0 HT 1-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
17.03.2022 Triestina Triestina 1-2 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
06.11.2021 Pergolettese Pergolettese 0-1 HT 0-1 Triestina Triestina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pergolettese
1-0
AWAY Triestina
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pergolettese vs Triestina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pergolettese edged past Triestina 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Triestina at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pergolettese had 43% of the ball to Triestina's 57%, shots finished 8-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Triestina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pergolettese and 1.17 for Triestina.

What was the final score of Pergolettese vs Triestina?

Pergolettese 1-0 Triestina in the Italy - Serie C on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pergolettese vs Triestina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Triestina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pergolettese 29%, draw 26%, Triestina 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Triestina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Triestina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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