Odense 2-1 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.73
6+ Goals
13%
6.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.25
X/1
16%
3.78
X/2
8%
13.9
X/X
9%
7.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.4
2/2
9%
9.99
2/X
7%
17.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.3pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.3pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Odense EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 18%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.26/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.08
+7% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +23%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
56.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
17.0 Crosses 12.6
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Odense
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.08 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
339 Passes 285
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-2 HT 0-1 Odense Odense DAN1
07.06.2020 Odense Odense 3-1 HT 3-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
04.08.2019 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-0 Odense Odense DAN
10.05.2019 Odense Odense 4-1 HT 2-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
23.04.2019 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-0 HT 0-0 Odense Odense DAN
27.02.2019 Odense Odense 1-1 HT 0-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Odense
2-1
AWAY Esbjerg
2.76 xG 1.18
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 0
372 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
33 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Odense vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Odense edged past Esbjerg 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Odense as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Odense had 55% of the ball to Esbjerg's 45%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.76 to 1.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Odense's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Odense had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Odense and 0.67 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Odense vs Esbjerg?

Odense 2-1 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Odense vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Odense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Odense 55%, draw 22%, Esbjerg 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Odense), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Odense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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