Haka 3-3 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Oct 2024

Haka
3-3 HT 1-0
Gnistan
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.25
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
8%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 28% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.23
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
10%
5.21
X/2
13%
6.26
X/X
22%
4.74
2/1
5%
25.5
2/2
17%
4.18
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
41%
-12.8pp
35%
Draw
27%
+7.4pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 36%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.55/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.28
+13% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
24.1 Crosses 15.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haka
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Gnistan
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.30 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
386 Passes 289
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 28
28 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
28.07.2024 Haka Haka 1-2 HT 0-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
05.05.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 0-3 HT 0-2 Haka Haka FİN
08.09.2017 Gnistan Gnistan 1-1 HT 1-1 Haka Haka FİN2
19.07.2017 Haka Haka 2-1 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
17.05.2017 Gnistan Gnistan 0-2 HT 0-1 Haka Haka FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haka
3-3
AWAY Gnistan
2.03 xG 2.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 26
9 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 9
451 Passes 446
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Crosses 40
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Haka vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Haka and Gnistan shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 35% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Haka had 49% of the ball to Gnistan's 51%, shots finished 21-26, expected goals 2.03 to 2.66.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Haka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Haka and 0.80 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Haka vs Gnistan?

Haka 3-3 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haka vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Haka 28%, draw 35%, Gnistan 38%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gnistan), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →