Caen 0-1 Troyes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.82
Over
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
34%
3.16
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
17%
3.7
6+
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.16 — our 34% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.64
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.85
X/1
21%
4.31
X/2
12%
7.48
X/X
9%
4.65
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.7
2/X
7%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Troyes EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.30/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.57
-8% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
23.0 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Troyes
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 1.05
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
273 Passes 368
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
04.11.2023 Troyes Troyes 2-1 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
17.04.2021 Troyes Troyes 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
12.12.2020 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
14.02.2020 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
13.09.2019 Troyes Troyes 2-1 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
0-1
AWAY Troyes
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Caen vs Troyes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Troyes edged past Caen 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Caen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Caen had 65% of the ball to Troyes's 35%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Troyes led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Caen and 1.00 for Troyes.

What was the final score of Caen vs Troyes?

Caen 0-1 Troyes in the France - Ligue 2 on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Troyes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Caen 45%, draw 27%, Troyes 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Caen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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