Iwaki 1-2 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒07:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Iwaki EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 33%
-26% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.29
-22% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.5 Crosses 21.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Iwaki
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.02.2024 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-0 HT 1-0 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
09.07.2023 Iwaki Iwaki 4-3 HT 1-2 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
26.02.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 2-2 HT 0-0 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Iwaki
1-2
AWAY Mito HollyHock
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
252 Passes 184
68% Pass Accuracy 63%
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Iwaki vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mito HollyHock squeezed past Iwaki 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Mito HollyHock found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Iwaki had 57% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 43%, shots finished 23-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Iwaki and 2.00 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of Iwaki vs Mito HollyHock?

Iwaki 1-2 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Iwaki vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Iwaki win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Iwaki 37%, draw 29%, Mito HollyHock 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Iwaki), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Iwaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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