Rostov 2-3 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 28% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.37
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
13%
4.04
X/2
13%
8.45
X/X
11%
4.88
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
11%
6.61
2/X
7%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.43/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.42
-25% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
24.7 Crosses 13.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 0.98
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
319 Passes 228
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
09.12.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
22.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
28.05.2023 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 2-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
27.11.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
29.10.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
29.09.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
2-3
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
0.65 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 2
289 Passes 224
71% Pass Accuracy 63%
31 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rostov vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny squeezed past Rostov 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Rostov at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Rostov had 54% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 46%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.65 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Rostov and 1.00 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Rostov vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Rostov 2-3 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Premier League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rostov 45%, draw 25%, FC Akhmat Grozny 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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