ND Primorje 1-1 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.09
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.79
6+ Goals
7%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 33% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.5pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.8pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ND Primorje EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ND Primorje
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Nafta
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-3 HT 0-2 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ND Primorje
1-1
AWAY Nafta
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ND Primorje vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ND Primorje and Nafta couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was ND Primorje at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, ND Primorje had 57% of the ball to Nafta's 43%, shots finished 9-13.

What was the final score of ND Primorje vs Nafta?

ND Primorje 1-1 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ND Primorje vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a ND Primorje win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split ND Primorje 42%, draw 32%, Nafta 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ND Primorje), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ND Primorje) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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26 Oct 2024
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