Mura 1-1 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

Mura
1-1 HT 1-0
Maribor
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 29% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-8.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.6pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 56%
+10% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -8%
1.34/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.09
+32% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
251 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Maribor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Maribor Maribor 2-1 HT 1-1 Mura Mura SLVN
09.04.2024 Maribor Maribor 5-0 HT 2-0 Mura Mura SLVN
18.02.2024 Mura Mura 3-0 HT 0-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN
26.11.2023 Mura Mura 0-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
07.10.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
02.05.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
1-1
AWAY Maribor
29% Ball Possession 71%
3 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 12
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Mura vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura and Maribor shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mura had 29% of the ball to Maribor's 71%, shots finished 3-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mura and 2.17 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Mura vs Maribor?

Mura 1-1 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mura 32%, draw 25%, Maribor 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Maribor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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SLVN More Slovenia - 1st Division
26 Oct 2024
16:00 ND Primorje vs Nafta Analysis →