Maribor 2-1 Mura — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 11 Aug 2024

Maribor
2-1 HT 1-1
Mura
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.97
Over 2.5
61%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.81
No
43%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.61
2-3 Goals
34%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
33%
3.34
6+ Goals
13%
12.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 33% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
47%
-8.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
53%
+8.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.4pp
43%
BTTS No
49%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mura EU Bookmakers 22%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.82/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.55
+10% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mura
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2024 Maribor Maribor 5-0 HT 2-0 Mura Mura SLVN
18.02.2024 Mura Mura 3-0 HT 0-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN
26.11.2023 Mura Mura 0-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
07.10.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
02.05.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
05.03.2023 Mura Mura 2-1 HT 2-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
2-1
AWAY Mura
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Mura
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor nicked a narrow win over Mura 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Maribor had 60% of the ball to Mura's 40%, shots finished 16-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Maribor and 1.17 for Mura.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Mura?

Maribor 2-1 Mura in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Mura?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Maribor 53%, draw 25%, Mura 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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