Lehnerz 3-3 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
47%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
2.21
Over 2.5
40%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-6.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
47%
Away Win
41%
+5.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
41%
+18.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
59%
-18.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.2pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lehnerz EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -21%
1.09/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.58
-26% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
267 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lehnerz
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Homburg
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2024 Homburg Homburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
10.12.2023 Homburg Homburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
26.08.2023 Lehnerz Lehnerz 2-2 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
17.03.2023 Lehnerz Lehnerz 0-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
09.09.2022 Homburg Homburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Lehnerz vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lehnerz and Homburg couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lehnerz had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Lehnerz and 1.00 for Homburg.

What was the final score of Lehnerz vs Homburg?

Lehnerz 3-3 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lehnerz vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lehnerz 28%, draw 25%, Homburg 47%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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