Homburg 1-1 Lehnerz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lehnerz EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -20%
1.51/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.86
-11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
280 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Lehnerz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
57% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2023 Homburg Homburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
26.08.2023 Lehnerz Lehnerz 2-2 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
17.03.2023 Lehnerz Lehnerz 0-1 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
09.09.2022 Homburg Homburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Homburg vs Lehnerz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Homburg and Lehnerz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lehnerz led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Homburg and 1.75 for Lehnerz.

What was the final score of Homburg vs Lehnerz?

Homburg 1-1 Lehnerz in the Germany - Regional League on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs Lehnerz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Homburg 40%, draw 30%, Lehnerz 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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