Once Caldas 1-0 Union Magdalena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-7.4pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Magdalena EU Bookmakers 18%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.25/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.29
-32% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -22%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
337 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 73%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
24.3 Crosses 12.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Union Magdalena
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 0.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
288 Passes 215
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2025 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 0-3 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
19.09.2023 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 1-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
08.04.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
08.07.2022 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 2-2 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
23.01.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
30.10.2019 Once Caldas Once Caldas 3-1 HT 2-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Union Magdalena
2.29 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
264 Passes 222
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Union Magdalena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas squeezed past Union Magdalena 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Once Caldas had 53% of the ball to Union Magdalena's 47%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.29 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Once Caldas and 1.00 for Union Magdalena.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Union Magdalena?

Once Caldas 1-0 Union Magdalena in the Colombia - Primera on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Union Magdalena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 56%, draw 26%, Union Magdalena 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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