Tondela vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-2
Sporting CP
PORLC
1-3
HT 0-2
Sporting CP
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Sporting CP
POR
4-0
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
Tondela 0-3 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics
Sporting CP swept aside Tondela 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Tondela had 34% of the ball to Sporting CP's 66%, shots finished 9-29, expected goals 0.46 to 2.48.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Tondela and 2.67 for Sporting CP.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Sporting CP?
Tondela 0-3 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Sporting CP?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Tondela 11%, draw 20%, Sporting CP 69%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.