Hibernian 3-3 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 26 Nov 2024

Hibernian
3-3 HT 1-0
Aberdeen
📅26/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Hibernian vs Aberdeen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
44%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.62
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
8%
5.47
X/2
17%
5.9
X/X
14%
4.45
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
20%
4.02
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
39%
-9.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
44%
Away Win
33%
+11.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.3pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hibernian v Aberdeen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hibernian EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.44/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.37
+9% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
283 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 69%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
21.5 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Hibernian vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hibernian
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 2.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
287 Passes 261
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 0-4 HT 0-2 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
17.02.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-2 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
03.12.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 2-0 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
04.11.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 0-1 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKLK
03.09.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-2 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
13.05.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-0 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP

Hibernian 3-3 Aberdeen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hibernian
3-3
AWAY Aberdeen
2.20 xG 1.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
239 Passes 263
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 30
27 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hibernian vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hibernian and Aberdeen shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aberdeen at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hibernian had 49% of the ball to Aberdeen's 51%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 2.20 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hibernian and 1.17 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Hibernian vs Aberdeen?

Hibernian 3-3 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 26/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hibernian vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hibernian 30%, draw 26%, Aberdeen 44%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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