AZ U19 2-1 Manchester United U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 26 Nov 2024

📅26/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.23
Over Pick
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
21%
4.72
2-3
43%
1.93
4-5
27%
2.89
6+
9%
8.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.12
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
4%
12.75
X/1
16%
5.38
X/2
12%
6.45
X/X
12%
5.53
2/1
5%
23.85
2/2
14%
4.03
2/X
6%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ U19 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United U19 EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.10/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/2.89
-33% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 80%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
8.3 Crosses 14.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ U19
2-1
AWAY Manchester United U19
2.10 xG 1.48
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
267 Passes 382
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ U19 vs Manchester United U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ U19 edged past Manchester United U19 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AZ U19 as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, AZ U19 had 42% of the ball to Manchester United U19's 58%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.10 to 1.48.

What was the final score of AZ U19 vs Manchester United U19?

AZ U19 2-1 Manchester United U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 26/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ U19 vs Manchester United U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AZ U19 44%, draw 22%, Manchester United U19 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ U19), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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