Bayern München U19 2-5 Paris SG U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 26 Nov 2024

📅26/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.96
Over 2.5
66%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.41
No
35%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
7.43
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
45%
2.26
4-5 Goals
29%
2.46
6+ Goals
12%
4.66
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 2.26 — our 45% vs market 38.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
28%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.4pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.7pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.0pp
34%
Under 2.5
30%
+4.0pp
66%
Over 2.5
70%
-4.0pp
65%
BTTS Yes
67%
-1.9pp
35%
BTTS No
33%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern München U19 EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris SG U19 EU Bookmakers 24%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.26/2.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.18
-39% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
412 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
40.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.3 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern München U19
2-5
AWAY Paris SG U19
1.83 xG 2.58
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 11
421 Passes 329
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern München U19 vs Paris SG U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris SG U19 ran out comfortable winners over Bayern München U19 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern München U19 at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bayern München U19 had 56% of the ball to Paris SG U19's 44%, shots finished 18-18, expected goals 1.83 to 2.58.

What was the final score of Bayern München U19 vs Paris SG U19?

Bayern München U19 2-5 Paris SG U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 26/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern München U19 vs Paris SG U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern München U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Bayern München U19 54%, draw 21%, Paris SG U19 26%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern München U19) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern München U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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