Derby County 2-1 West Bromwich — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 26 Dec 2024

Derby County
2-1 HT 1-0
West Bromwich
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs West Bromwich Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.51
Over
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
37%
2.19
2-3
36%
1.76
4-5
18%
5.25
6+
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.35
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
3%
14.2
X/1
14%
5.56
X/2
15%
5.23
X/X
20%
3.57
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.98
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.5pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.8pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v West Bromwich — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY West Bromwich EU Bookmakers 39%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.37/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.33
+4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
280 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
20.0 Crosses 19.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Derby County vs West Bromwich Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
3W-2D-1L
AWAY West Bromwich
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.22 xG 1.68
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
293 Passes 324
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 32
11 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.08.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNLK
27.12.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
14.09.2021 West Bromwich West Bromwich 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
08.07.2020 West Bromwich West Bromwich 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
24.08.2019 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
05.05.2019 Derby County Derby County 3-1 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL

Derby County 2-1 West Bromwich — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
2-1
AWAY West Bromwich
0.72 xG 1.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
227 Passes 420
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs West Bromwich
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County squeezed past West Bromwich 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Derby County made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Derby County had 38% of the ball to West Bromwich's 62%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.72 to 1.33 — the balance of chances actually favoured West Bromwich.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derby County and 0.67 for West Bromwich.

What was the final score of Derby County vs West Bromwich?

Derby County 2-1 West Bromwich in the England - Championship on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs West Bromwich?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Derby County 36%, draw 30%, West Bromwich 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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