Middlesbrough 3-3 Sheffield Wednesday — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No OUR CALL
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.42
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
11%
4.37
X/2
7%
8.51
X/X
9%
5.25
2/1
9%
23.0
2/2
13%
6.12
2/X
8%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sheffield Wednesday EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +20%
1.56/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.52
-22% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
386 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.8 Crosses 16.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sheffield Wednesday
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.59 xG 1.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
340 Passes 262
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
19.09.2023 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
24.04.2021 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-1 HT 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
29.12.2020 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 HT 2-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
22.07.2020 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.09.2019 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-4 HT 1-4 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
3-3
AWAY Sheffield Wednesday
1.25 xG 1.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
465 Passes 316
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough and Sheffield Wednesday shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 3-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 56% of the ball to Sheffield Wednesday's 44%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 1.25 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.50 for Sheffield Wednesday.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday?

Middlesbrough 3-3 Sheffield Wednesday in the England - Championship on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 48%, draw 24%, Sheffield Wednesday 28%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ BTTS No
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