Oxford United 3-2 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
41%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No OUR CALL
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.35
6+ Goals
8%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.03
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
13%
5.58
X/2
14%
5.57
X/X
12%
3.86
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
4.02
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.1pp
41%
Away Win
34%
+6.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.8pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 38%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -2%
1.01/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.34
+27% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
10.9 Crosses 17.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
10.08.2011 Oxford United Oxford United 1-1 HT 1-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
3-2
AWAY Cardiff City
1.49 xG 0.57
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
314 Passes 477
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oxford United squeezed past Cardiff City 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cardiff City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oxford United had 41% of the ball to Cardiff City's 59%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.49 to 0.57.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Cardiff City?

Oxford United 3-2 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 33%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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