Norwich City 2-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.62
Over
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.49
2-3
40%
1.74
4-5
19%
4.43
6+
9%
23.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.19
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.68
X/2
11%
6.63
X/X
16%
3.92
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
13%
5.21
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norwich City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
1.36/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.20
+14% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.3 Crosses 17.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norwich City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Millwall
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.13 xG 1.23
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
444 Passes 253
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.12.2023 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 1-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
20.08.2023 Norwich City Norwich City 3-1 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
04.03.2023 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 1-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
19.08.2022 Norwich City Norwich City 2-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
02.02.2021 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
03.11.2020 Norwich City Norwich City 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norwich City
2-1
AWAY Millwall
2.02 xG 0.45
67% Ball Possession 33%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
562 Passes 221
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Norwich City vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norwich City nicked a narrow win over Millwall 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Norwich City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Norwich City had 67% of the ball to Millwall's 33%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 2.02 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Norwich City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Norwich City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Norwich City and 0.67 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Norwich City vs Millwall?

Norwich City 2-1 Millwall in the England - Championship on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norwich City vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Norwich City 42%, draw 27%, Millwall 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Norwich City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Norwich City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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