Gateshead 0-3 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 26 Dec 2025

📅26/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
59%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.51
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
26%
2.53
6+ Goals
13%
5.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.77
1/2
7%
18.9
1/X
5%
17.25
X/1
7%
12.2
X/2 EV+ ✗
24%
4.32
X/X
8%
7.39
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
28%
1.83
2/X
8%
15.55
Value flag · X/2 at 4.32 — our 24% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.4pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.6pp
59%
Away Win
62%
-3.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gateshead EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 66%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
0.75/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.48
-33% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -33%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
148 · 89% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 188 · 91%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gateshead
0-3
AWAY Carlisle United
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gateshead vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United cruised past Gateshead 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Carlisle United as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Gateshead had 43% of the ball to Carlisle United's 57%, shots finished 8-10.

What was the final score of Gateshead vs Carlisle United?

Gateshead 0-3 Carlisle United in the England - National League on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gateshead vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Gateshead 21%, draw 21%, Carlisle United 59%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carlisle United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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