Morecambe 1-2 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 26 Dec 2025

Morecambe
1-2 HT 0-1
Rochdale
📅26/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
England - National League – 2025/2026

Morecambe vs Rochdale Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.34
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
63%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.42
2-3 Goals
34%
1.88
4-5 Goals
33%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
10.4
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
20.6
1/X
7%
18.8
X/1
7%
13.15
X/2
21%
4.08
X/X
8%
6.85
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
35%
1.77
2/X
4%
16.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.6 — our 7% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
16%
+1.8pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.8pp
63%
Away Win
64%
-1.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
-0.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Rochdale — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 69%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.66/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/0.50
+55% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +102%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
230 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Morecambe vs Rochdale Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rochdale
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
374 Passes 359
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
08.09.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 1-0 Rochdale Rochdale İNTK
29.07.2017 Morecambe Morecambe 0-1 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale HAZ
10.11.2015 Rochdale Rochdale 0-1 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İNTK
15.02.2014 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
16.11.2013 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
02.03.2013 Morecambe Morecambe 3-0 HT 1-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale nicked a narrow win over Morecambe 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rochdale as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rochdale led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Morecambe and 1.17 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Rochdale?

Morecambe 1-2 Rochdale in the England - National League on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 17%, draw 20%, Rochdale 63%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rochdale), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rochdale) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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