Oxford City 1-3 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Dec 2025

Oxford City
1-3 HT 0-1
Merthyr Town
📅26/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2025/2026

Oxford City vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.69
2-3 Goals
34%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.7
6+ Goals
16%
7.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+0.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-0.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.0pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oxford City v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford City EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 43%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+4% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
273 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.7 Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Oxford City vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town beat Oxford City 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?

Oxford City 1-3 Merthyr Town in the England - Conference on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Oxford City 32%, draw 25%, Merthyr Town 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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