Chesham United 1-0 Hemel Hempstead Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Dec 2025

📅26/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.71
2-3 Goals
33%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.98
6+ Goals
9%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
33%
+3.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.50/2.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.32
+16% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
207 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesham United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.04.2025 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Chesham United Chesham United İCON
01.01.2025 Chesham United Chesham United 1-0 HT 1-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesham United
1-0
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Hemel Hempstead Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United squeezed past Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Chesham United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chesham United had 47% of the ball to Hemel Hempstead Town's 53%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chesham United and 1.00 for Hemel Hempstead Town.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Chesham United 1-0 Hemel Hempstead Town in the England - Conference on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 36%, draw 28%, Hemel Hempstead Town 36%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ BTTS Yes
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