Birmingham 1-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 26 Dec 2025

Birmingham
1-1 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅26/12/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Birmingham vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.2
6+ Goals
11%
20.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.67
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.1
X/1
18%
4.43
X/2
8%
7.93
X/X
12%
4.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
2/2
13%
6.53
2/X
5%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.5pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +2%
1.64/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.29
+10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.5 Crosses 17.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Birmingham vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Derby County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.34 xG 1.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
219 Passes 304
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.01.2022 Derby County Derby County 2-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
10.09.2021 Birmingham Birmingham 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
24.04.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
29.12.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 0-4 HT 0-3 Derby County Derby County İNCL
22.07.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 1-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
28.09.2019 Derby County Derby County 3-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL

Birmingham 1-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
1-1
AWAY Derby County
2.98 xG 0.78
74% Ball Possession 26%
25 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 1
477 Passes 115
85% Pass Accuracy 55%
52 Box Touches 11
47 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham and Derby County shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Birmingham at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Birmingham had 74% of the ball to Derby County's 26%, shots finished 25-5, expected goals 2.98 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Birmingham and 2.17 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Derby County?

Birmingham 1-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 26/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 45%, draw 27%, Derby County 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Birmingham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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