Barcelona 3-5 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 27 Jan 2024

Barcelona
3-5 HT 0-1
Villarreal
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Barcelona vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.89
Over 2.5
62%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.79
2-3 Goals
39%
2.17
4-5 Goals
26%
2.49
6+ Goals
16%
5.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.63
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
18.05
X/1
17%
3.84
X/2
10%
14.7
X/X
10%
8.22
2/1
8%
18.6
2/2
8%
9.68
2/X
5%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+8.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
31%
+7.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
69%
-7.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.8pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barcelona v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +19%
2.24/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.67
+39% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
467 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
16.2 Crosses 11.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Barcelona vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Villarreal
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.23 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
508 Passes 320
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-4 HT 2-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
12.02.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
20.10.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 3-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.05.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 0-2 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
27.11.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 1-3 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
25.04.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 1-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Barcelona 3-5 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
3-5
AWAY Villarreal
2.21 xG 2.18
71% Ball Possession 29%
22 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 0
587 Passes 196
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal beat Barcelona 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Barcelona at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Barcelona had 71% of the ball to Villarreal's 29%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.21 to 2.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Barcelona and 1.17 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Villarreal?

Barcelona 3-5 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 55%, draw 21%, Villarreal 24%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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