Las Palmas 1-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
55%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
8.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
9.46
1/2
8%
21.05
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
17.6
X/1
7%
12.55
X/2
21%
3.69
X/X
9%
6.39
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
26%
1.8
2/X
5%
17.0
Value flag · 1/X at 17.6 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
17%
+5.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
55%
Away Win
63%
-7.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 67%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.78/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.09
+5% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +1%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 83%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
12.0 Crosses 18.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.62 xG 2.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
463 Passes 438
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 38
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
31.03.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-3 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
05.11.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
01.03.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
24.09.2016 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
13.03.2016 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
1-2
AWAY Real Madrid
0.73 xG 2.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
512 Passes 434
92% Pass Accuracy 90%
17 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid edged past Las Palmas 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Las Palmas had 53% of the ball to Real Madrid's 47%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.73 to 2.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Madrid's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Las Palmas and 2.50 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?

Las Palmas 1-2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 22%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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