27/01/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-0
Caen II vs ASPTT Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
34%
4-5
20%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
21%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
39%
Home Win
42%
34%
Draw
29%
28%
Away Win
29%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Caen II v ASPTT Caen — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Caen II
The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY
ASPTT Caen
The Market 32%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-4% /
-4%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+33%
/
-37%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
11
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
3
333 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
296 · 71%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Caen II vs ASPTT Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
ASPTT Caen squeezed past Caen II 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match split (39% / 34% / 28%) promised a tight game; ASPTT Caen found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Caen II vs ASPTT Caen?
Caen II 0-1 ASPTT Caen in the France - National League 3 on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Caen II vs ASPTT Caen?
Before kick-off our model rated a Caen II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Caen II 39%, draw 34%, ASPTT Caen 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Caen II) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Caen II)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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FRUL3
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27 Jan 2024