Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 27 Jan 2025

📅27/01/2025 · 🕒03:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-5.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.3pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.05/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.18
+5% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -38%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
273 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 80%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
16.3 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.71 xG 1.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
282 Passes 278
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
25.02.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
21.08.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.02.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.10.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
11.04.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.20 xG 0.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
161 Passes 129
67% Pass Accuracy 59%
9 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera and Independiente Medellin shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 51% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 49%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 1.20 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.50 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin?

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 27/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 34%, draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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