Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Kasımpaşa v Hatayspor — Team-Based Signals
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor — Actual Match Statistics
Kasımpaşa squeezed past Hatayspor 5-4. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Kasımpaşa had 69% of the ball to Hatayspor's 31%, shots finished 31-10, expected goals 2.84 to 1.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kasımpaşa's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.50 for Hatayspor.
What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 27/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 49%, draw 25%, Hatayspor 26%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.