Kasımpaşa 3-0 Hatayspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.09
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
14%
9.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.8
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
15%
4.79
X/2
11%
6.92
X/X
13%
5.15
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
14%
4.67
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.70/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.67
+23% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.1 Crosses 15.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hatayspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.08
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
253 Passes 370
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.08.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
05.02.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
28.08.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-0 HT 1-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
08.01.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 2-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
14.08.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
06.02.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-4 HT 0-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
3-0
AWAY Hatayspor
1.26 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
342 Passes 280
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa swept aside Hatayspor 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 53% of the ball to Hatayspor's 47%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.26 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.17 for Hatayspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?

Kasımpaşa 3-0 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 43%, draw 25%, Hatayspor 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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