Heracles 2-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 27 Feb 2025

Heracles
2-2 HT 1-2
AZ Alkmaar
📅27/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2024/2025

Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
49%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.31
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 25% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.58
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
23.4
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
7%
8.54
X/2
19%
4.44
X/X
9%
4.94
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.39
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.4 — our 6% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
49%
Away Win
51%
-2.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 56%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.90/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.13
+16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +20%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.5 Crosses 10.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.59
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
297 Passes 487
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
01.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.04.2024 Heracles Heracles 5-0 HT 3-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
28.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
19.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
15.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 2-1 Heracles Heracles HOK
19.09.2021 Heracles Heracles 3-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL

Heracles 2-2 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
2-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.55 xG 1.97
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 11
423 Passes 459
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 52
25 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles and AZ Alkmaar couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Heracles had 49% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 51%, shots finished 12-21, expected goals 1.55 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Heracles and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heracles 2-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Heracles 27%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 49%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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