AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
15%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.81
2-3 Goals
36%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.86
6+ Goals
17%
7.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.05
X/1
18%
4.15
X/2
5%
16.8
X/X
9%
7.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
18%
24.3
2/2
5%
12.55
2/X
5%
21.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 18% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.3pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.3pp
15%
Away Win
14%
+0.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+0.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.5pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 17%
-6% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
2.21/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.14
+23% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
19.1 Crosses 16.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Heracles
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.29 xG 1.14
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
497 Passes 310
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2024 Heracles Heracles 5-0 HT 3-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
28.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
19.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
15.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 2-1 Heracles Heracles HOK
19.09.2021 Heracles Heracles 3-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
16.05.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-0
AWAY Heracles
1.55 xG 0.70
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
481 Passes 250
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Heracles 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 63% of the ball to Heracles's 37%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.55 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.83 for Heracles.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 63%, draw 22%, Heracles 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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