NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.66
No
40%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.11
2-3 Goals
34%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
32%
3.11
6+ Goals
13%
9.98
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.11 — our 32% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.1
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
8%
16.5
X/1
12%
9.93
X/2
12%
4.74
X/X
9%
6.14
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.51
2/X
10%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
23%
+8.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-11.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.5pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 57%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
0.91/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.58
-50% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -36%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
19.6 Crosses 19.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Ajax
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.87 xG 2.41
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
264 Passes 515
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 49
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
03.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
05.03.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.01.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
23.04.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
14.08.2021 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 5-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-2
AWAY Ajax
3.54 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 1
399 Passes 390
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
35 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax nicked a narrow win over NEC Nijmegen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 51% of the ball to Ajax's 49%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.54 to 0.92 — the balance of chances actually favoured NEC Nijmegen.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.00 for Ajax.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 32%, draw 26%, Ajax 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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