Corinthians 3-2 UCV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 27 Feb 2025

📅27/02/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
18%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.46
Over 2.5
59%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.8
2-3 Goals
41%
2.28
4-5 Goals
26%
2.28
6+ Goals
11%
3.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
82%
-18.4pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.9pp
18%
Away Win
7%
+10.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
25%
+15.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
75%
-15.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY UCV EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-28% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
37.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.9 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
0W-1D-0L
AWAY UCV
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.17
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
530 Passes 229
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
20.02.2025 UCV UCV 1-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-2
AWAY UCV
1.74 xG 1.18
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
403 Passes 133
86% Pass Accuracy 62%
62 Box Touches 9
35 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs UCV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians nicked a narrow win over UCV 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Corinthians had 69% of the ball to UCV's 31%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 1.74 to 1.18.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs UCV?

Corinthians 3-2 UCV in the Copa Libertadores on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs UCV?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 64%, draw 18%, UCV 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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