Santos 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Feb 2026

📅27/02/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
24%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.8
Over
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.99
2-3
37%
1.74
4-5
20%
3.63
6+
9%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.99 — our 34% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.83
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
19%
4.69
X/2
9%
7.04
X/X
11%
4.52
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.3
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
46%
+5.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.52/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.37
+3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
336 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
23.2 Crosses 19.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.36 xG 1.39
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
296 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 Santos Santos 0-6 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
31.03.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
01.10.2023 Santos Santos 4-1 HT 3-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.05.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
20.12.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
03.09.2020 Santos Santos 2-2 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.75 xG 1.36
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
240 Passes 396
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Santos vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos edged past Vasco da Gama 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 40% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 60%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.75 to 1.36 — on chances, Vasco da Gama could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Santos and 2.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Santos vs Vasco da Gama?

Santos 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Santos 52%, draw 24%, Vasco da Gama 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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