Santos vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Santos v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals
Santos vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 3-1
Vasco da Gama
BR1
0-1
HT 0-1
Santos
BR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Santos
BR1
2-2
HT 1-1
Vasco da Gama
BR1
Santos 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics
Santos edged past Vasco da Gama 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Santos had 40% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 60%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.75 to 1.36 — on chances, Vasco da Gama could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Santos and 2.00 for Vasco da Gama.
What was the final score of Santos vs Vasco da Gama?
Santos 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Santos vs Vasco da Gama?
Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Santos 52%, draw 24%, Vasco da Gama 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.