NEC 3-1 Express — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 27 Mar 2025

NEC
3-1 HT 2-0
Express
📅27/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Express EU Bookmakers 20%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.73
-35% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Express
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.10.2024 Express Express 2-1 HT 2-0 NEC NEC UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC
3-1
AWAY Express
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC vs Express
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC saw off Express 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, NEC had 52% of the ball to Express's 48%, shots finished 12-13.

What was the final score of NEC vs Express?

NEC 3-1 Express in the Uganda - Premier League on 27/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC vs Express?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split NEC 54%, draw 28%, Express 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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