Burgos 2-2 Amorebieta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.64
Over 2.5
36%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.64
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.44
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 39% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.85
X/1
14%
3.72
X/2
12%
10.05
X/X
10%
4.35
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
9%
8.75
2/X
11%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
57%
+6.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
43%
-6.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.26/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.31
+40% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.8 Crosses 20.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Amorebieta
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
286 Passes 270
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 37
0 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Amorebieta Amorebieta 0-1 HT 0-1 Burgos Burgos İS2
31.12.2021 Burgos Burgos 2-2 HT 2-1 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS2
11.09.2021 Amorebieta Amorebieta 2-2 HT 1-1 Burgos Burgos İS2
27.10.2019 Burgos Burgos 1-2 HT 0-0 Amorebieta Amorebieta İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
2-2
AWAY Amorebieta
1.33 xG 0.88
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
305 Passes 438
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Amorebieta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos and Amorebieta couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Burgos at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burgos had 42% of the ball to Amorebieta's 58%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.33 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Burgos and 1.50 for Amorebieta.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Amorebieta?

Burgos 2-2 Amorebieta in the Spain - 2nd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Amorebieta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burgos 46%, draw 28%, Amorebieta 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Burgos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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