Lazio 1-0 Hellas Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.07
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.2
X/1
18%
3.7
X/2
8%
10.4
X/X
11%
5.11
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
8%
8.58
2/X
8%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.69/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.39
+9% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.9 Crosses 15.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.30
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
421 Passes 257
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
06.02.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
11.09.2022 Lazio Lazio 2-0 HT 0-0 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
21.05.2022 Lazio Lazio 3-3 HT 2-2 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
24.10.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 4-1 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
11.04.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-1 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-0
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.09 xG 0.62
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
451 Passes 143
84% Pass Accuracy 62%
30 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Hellas Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio edged past Hellas Verona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lazio had 69% of the ball to Hellas Verona's 31%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.09 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lazio and 1.50 for Hellas Verona.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Hellas Verona?

Lazio 1-0 Hellas Verona in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Hellas Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lazio 51%, draw 27%, Hellas Verona 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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