Lecce 1-1 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Apr 2024

Lecce
1-1 HT 0-0
Monza
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.67
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.39
6+ Goals
9%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
11%
4.23
X/2
10%
7.48
X/X
12%
4.12
2/1
11%
28.0
2/2
12%
6.07
2/X
5%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +28%
1.44/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.23
-42% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
22.7 Crosses 13.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Monza
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.26 xG 0.94
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
238 Passes 381
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
28.05.2023 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
11.09.2022 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 0-1 Monza Monza İTA
27.02.2022 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
01.10.2021 Lecce Lecce 3-0 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTB
04.05.2021 Monza Monza 1-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-1
AWAY Monza
0.98 xG 1.14
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 5
317 Passes 367
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce and Monza shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lecce at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lecce had 46% of the ball to Monza's 54%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.98 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lecce and 0.50 for Monza.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Monza?

Lecce 1-1 Monza in the Italy - Serie A on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lecce 46%, draw 26%, Monza 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lecce), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
27 Apr 2024
19:00 Juventus vs Milan Analysis →
21:45 Lazio vs Hellas Verona Analysis →