Newcastle Jets 1-3 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Apr 2024

Newcastle Jets
1-3 HT 0-1
Central Coast Mariners
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒10:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
41%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.48
2-3 Goals
46%
1.9
4-5 Goals
19%
2.91
6+ Goals
8%
8.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 27% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.84
1/2
7%
21.0
1/X
10%
14.4
X/1
12%
8.45
X/2
15%
4.31
X/X
10%
5.81
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.32
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.0pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
41%
Away Win
52%
-11.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.23/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.47
-23% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +148%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
17.3 Crosses 13.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.9

Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.26 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
349 Passes 362
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 0-1 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
25.11.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
22.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-3 HT 1-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
21.12.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
11.12.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
07.05.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS

Newcastle Jets 1-3 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
1-3
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.47 xG 0.87
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
417 Passes 351
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners got the better of Newcastle Jets 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Central Coast Mariners as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 54% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 46%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.47 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newcastle Jets and 2.17 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners?

Newcastle Jets 1-3 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated an Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 32%, draw 28%, Central Coast Mariners 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
27 Apr 2024
10:15 Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Analysis →
12:45 Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney Wanderers Analysis →