Wellington Phoenix 3-0 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒10:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.63
Over 2.5
60%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.23
2-3 Goals
39%
2.09
4-5 Goals
27%
2.54
6+ Goals
13%
5.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.95
X/1
10%
4.19
X/2
8%
11.05
X/X
10%
7.02
2/1
8%
19.0
2/2
9%
7.13
2/X
5%
15.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-5.8pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.0pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
34%
+5.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
66%
-5.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.6pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +24%
1.51/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/2.07
-6% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
18.1 Crosses 18.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Macarthur
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.03 xG 1.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
340 Passes 405
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
18.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
29.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
06.11.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 4-1 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
31.08.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
3-0
AWAY Macarthur
1.72 xG 0.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
500 Passes 457
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix ran out comfortable winners over Macarthur 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Wellington Phoenix as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 51% of the ball to Macarthur's 49%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.72 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.00 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?

Wellington Phoenix 3-0 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 53%, draw 20%, Macarthur 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wellington Phoenix), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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