Holbaek 3-2 Naesby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 27 Apr 2024

Holbaek
3-2 HT 2-2
Naesby
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Denmark - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Holbaek vs Naesby Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
33%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holbaek v Naesby — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holbaek EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Naesby EU Bookmakers 45%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.98/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.10
+48% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Holbaek vs Naesby Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holbaek
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Naesby
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Naesby Naesby 0-3 HT 0-0 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
14.10.2023 Holbaek Holbaek 2-3 HT 1-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
03.04.2021 Holbaek Holbaek 0-2 HT 0-2 Naesby Naesby DAN2
03.10.2020 Naesby Naesby 2-2 HT 0-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN2
24.06.2020 Naesby Naesby 1-1 HT 1-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN2
POST-MATCH Holbaek vs Naesby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holbaek nicked a narrow win over Naesby 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Holbaek found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Naesby led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Holbaek and 1.60 for Naesby.

What was the final score of Holbaek vs Naesby?

Holbaek 3-2 Naesby in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holbaek vs Naesby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holbaek 35%, draw 26%, Naesby 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Naesby), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naesby) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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