Gwangju 1-2 Suwon City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 31% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.47
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
19%
4.48
X/2
11%
8.62
X/X
11%
4.53
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
8%
6.37
2/X
10%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Suwon City EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +15%
0.99/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.33
+1% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
24.0 Crosses 12.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Suwon City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.64 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 Passes 386
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2023 Suwon City Suwon City 0-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
28.05.2023 Suwon City Suwon City 0-2 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
01.04.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 2-0 Suwon City Suwon City GKOK
24.10.2021 Suwon City Suwon City 1-3 HT 0-2 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
11.05.2021 Suwon City Suwon City 2-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
07.04.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 0-0 Suwon City Suwon City GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
1-2
AWAY Suwon City
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
571 Passes 297
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Suwon City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Suwon City edged past Gwangju 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gwangju at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gwangju had 65% of the ball to Suwon City's 35%, shots finished 12-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gwangju had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gwangju and 0.50 for Suwon City.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Suwon City?

Gwangju 1-2 Suwon City in the South Kore - K League Classic on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Suwon City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 46%, draw 28%, Suwon City 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gwangju) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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